Longsen International Logistics

Observation on Logistics Strategy

I. North American Policy Storm: Tariffs Reshape the Shipping Landscape

The capacity on the US route has sharply dropped by 20%, and the alliance has collectively suspended flights. Due to the US tariffs on China rising to a maximum of 245%, the capacity on the eastbound Trans-Pacific route has been significantly reduced. The OA Alliance (COSCO Shipping, CMA CGM, etc.) cancelled three routes to Los Angeles at the end of April, and Premier Alliance suspended new routes to the United States. Drewry data shows that 12% of global voyages will be cancelled in the next five weeks, with 53% of them being routes to the United States. Impact: The freight rate to the West Coast of the United States dropped to $2,202 per FEU (down 4.8% from April), while the freight rates to South America and the Mediterranean rose by 9.1% against the trend. Enterprise "tax-breaking" strategy: Shift to Europe and Latin America Foreign trade enterprises accelerate the layout of alternative markets: European Window: Tariff negotiations on electric vehicles between China and Europe have advanced, with freight rates rising by 5.7% in a single week. Latin America route: Direct flights from Zhuhai to Santana, Brazil have been launched, carrying high-tariff sensitive goods such as home appliances and photovoltaic accessories. Localization breakthrough: Through the combination of "cross-border small packages + overseas warehouses" for shipping, parts are transported by air small packages, and finished products are stocked in local warehouses.

Second, the explosion in Southeast Asia: The e-commerce dividend has given rise to a competition in logistics infrastructure

Vietnam's e-commerce market is expected to reach 32 billion US dollars by 2025 (with an Internet penetration rate of 70% and an average age of 33.4 years), attracting companies like JD Logistics and Cainiao to make intensive layouts.

Jd.com: In the first half of the year, it added three self-operated warehouses in Malaysia and Vietnam and launched two China-Southeast Asia routes. Cainiao: Kuala Lumpur Hub in Malaysia expands, Vietnam's "fastest next-day delivery" covers core areas; Zto Express: In collaboration with Vietnam's GHN, it has achieved a "one-stop" cross-border service between China and Vietnam, increasing customs clearance efficiency by 40%. Policy dividend: The new customs policies have activated cross-border warehousing and distribution

Export advance tax rebate: Starting from 2025, overseas warehouse goods will be "refunded upon departure", and the capital turnover will be accelerated by 30 days. One ticket for multiple vehicles: A pilot program for full declaration and distribution at the China-Vietnam border has reduced the time for vehicles to pass through checkpoints by 50%.

Industry trend outlook

North America: Tariff fluctuations may persist until Q3. It is recommended that enterprises prioritize the layout of transfer warehouses in Mexico and Canada.

Southeast Asia: The routes to Thailand and Vietnam are fully booked in May. Booking is required 7 days in advance.

Technical standard configuration: Cainiao's global distribution center has invested in AI sorting, and JD Logistics' Southeast Asia Warehouse is 100% automated.

Editor's Insight: Policy variables are reshaping the global logistics chain - the "contraction" in North America and the "expansion" in Southeast Asia are in conflict. Enterprises need to establish flexible supply chains (such as multi-port shipping + overseas warehouse networks) to avoid risks in a single market.

Data sources: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Vietnam VOV.VN, Cainiao International, JD Logistics. News Timeliness note: The policy information in this article is updated as of May 29, 2025, and the freight rate data is as of the third week of May.